JUST when everyone thought it was safe to get into the meat of the independence debate, one more important bit of process has flared up again.
This is the most important part of the process of all: the question that will be put on the ballot paper for the referendum.
The Scottish Government announced today it had sent its preferred wording: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country, yes or no?” to the Electoral Commission.
The commission will test the question, analyse it and report back with suggested amendments or back it as it is.
Elections expert Dr Matt Qvortrup told BBC Scotland this morning that he believed the question, as posed by the Scottish Government, was a clear one.
“I think the question is quite clear,” he said.
That prompted the SNP to put out a release saying: “Referendum question is clear and fair.”
Dr Qvortrup said the question was clear, which it undoubtedly is, but is it fair as the SNP claim?
This point is crucial.
The Scottish Government’s question has actually been tested before, by the Scottish Affairs Committee at Westminster, with some very revealing results.
The committee tested three questions: the SNP’s preferred wording, one which gave respondents the chance to “agree” or “disagree” and a third giving them the stated alternative of staying the UK as an alternative option.
These were the results:
1) “Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?” (This is the SNP’s preferred wording of the question).
‘Yes’ – 41 per cent.
‘No’ – 59 per cent.
2) “Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should become an independent country?”
‘Agree’ – 39 per cent.
‘Disagree’ – 61 per cent.
3) “Should Scotland become an independent country or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?”
‘Independence’ – 33 per cent.
‘United Kingdom’ – 67 per cent.
A total of 3,900 adult voters in Scotland were questioned – the equivalent of four newspaper-type opinion polls. When the Scottish Government’s preferred wording was asked, more than 40 per cent of Scots backed independence yet when the two alternative scenarios question was asked, support for independence dropped to 33 per cent.
That is hugely significant. It means that, if this research is right, the Scottish Government will be within sight of its goal if its own question is asked but well off the pace if another, more union-friendly question is asked.
This is why the issue of the question is so important.
And, despite the claims of the SNP press release, it comes down to fairness. Is it fair to ask people whether they agree to something without giving them the option of disagreeing?
Is it fair to ask them to vote for independence without giving them the option of backing the status quo?
All these issues will be poured over by the Electoral Commission before it delivers its findings but the results will be hugely important.
SNP strategists have shown all through this process that they have out-thought their unionist opponents by preparing so thoroughly for each twist and turn of the debate and their preparations for the question were no different.
They knew that, in a close referendum, it might come down to the wording of the question.
At the moment, they are ahead in this battle, but this is a fight that will only be resolved when the Electoral Commission delivers its verdict.
